The 10 worst-rated counties in the Midwest in terms of climate change risks are located in the southern portion of the region, with 8 in the state of Missouri. The 10 best-rated are found in the northern portion of the region, with 6 in Wisconsin and 4 in Michigan.

In part, that’s because that part of the Midwest is expected to see dangerous “wet-bulb” temperatures, the combination of high heat and humidity that is hazardous to human health in the coming decades. NASA predicts that Missouri will “hit the critical wet-bulb limit” in the next 50 years.

But higher temperatures also mean increased evaporation rates, so drought and decreased Midwestern crop yields are also expected due to climate change.

In 2021, for instance, 27% of the Midwest experienced a drought, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, including 70% of Michigan and 57% of Iowa. In 2022, despite record-setting rains in some states, large portions of Iowa, Missouri and Minnesota now find themselves in severe or extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The Environmental Protection Agency has found that rainfall across the Midwest has risen by 5% to 10% in the past 50 years on average.

And extreme precipitation events, like the one in August that dumped 14 inches of rain in just 12 hours on Newton, Ill., are expected to become more frequent.

Read more about climate risks to the Midwest.

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Texas is home to all the Great Plains’ top 10 worst-rated counties in terms of overall climate change risks, in part because temperatures are expected to continue to rise dramatically there. Six of the 10 counties rated safest are found in North Dakota.

“The average annual Texas surface temperature in 2036 is expected to be 3.0°F warmer than the 1950-1999 average and 1.8°F warmer than the 1991-2020 average,” a 2021 report from the Texas state climatologist found. “The number of 100-degree days at typical stations is expected to nearly double by 2036 compared to 2001-2020, with a higher frequency of 100-degree days in urban areas.”

Rising average temperatures in the Great Plains are wreaking havoc on the water cycle, specifically when sustaining water levels in the High Plains Aquifer. In the years to come, along with the earlier disappearance of the snowpack, that could pose significant issues in the delivery of water for agriculture. All Texas counties on the worst-ranked list received scores of 8 and above in terms of declining farm crop yields due to rising temperatures.

“Climate change will worsen this situation by causing drier conditions and increasing the need for irrigation,” the EPA states on its website.

The Great Plains are also susceptible to extreme cold snaps caused, ironically, by above-average temperatures in the Arctic that dislodge polar vortices, sending them shooting southward.

Read more about climate risks to the Great Plains.

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All the Southwest’s top 10 safest-rated counties from climate change risks are located in Colorado, according to a 2020 analysis conducted by ProPublica and the New York Times. The 10 worst-ranked counties are found in Arizona and California.

The region has a number of climate change risk factors, including drought, sea level rise in California, extreme flooding and excessive heat.

Between 1978 and 2018, California experienced a fivefold increase in the amount of land burned in wildfires, according to a 2019 study. If greenhouse gas emissions continue at their current rate, by 2050 the state could see a 57% rise in the number of days with extreme wildfire activity.

In Phoenix, Ariz., the average summertime temperature has risen by 3.8°F since 1970. Climate models predict that average will rise by an additional 10°Fby 2100, bringing daily average summer readings of 114°F.

Since 2014, deaths attributed to heat in Maricopa County, Ariz. — which includes Phoenix and nearby cities like Mesa, Scottsdale and Tempe — have spiked by 454%. For the past two years, the county has set new heat death records, with 323 people killed in 2020 and 331 in 2021, the bulk of those occurring in Phoenix.

“We know that in the Southwest, with the ongoing megadrought, 40%–50% of its severity can be attributed to warming temperatures alone,” UCLA climate scientist Daniel Swain told Yahoo News.

“The average flow of the Colorado River has already declined nearly 20% since 2000, with half of that attributable to rising temperatures,” the Nature Conservancy states in an article on its website. “Temperatures in the Basin are predicted to rise another 2-5 degrees Fahrenheit by 2050, which could reduce river flows by another 10 to 40%.”

Read more about climate risks to the Southwest.

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All the worst-ranked counties in terms of climate change risks in the Pacific Northwest scored poorly when it came to the threat from very large fires. In part, that is because of changes to the water cycle caused by rising temperatures, including an overall decrease in the snowpack. The top-ranked counties were scattered across the 3 states, with 6 found in Idaho.

“In the Northwest, all but three stations saw decreases in snowpack over the period of record (1955 to 2022),” the EPA says on its website. By 2080, the Cascades mountain range is expected to see an 80% reduction in its April snowpack, according to the most recent National Climate Assessment from the U.S. government.

Warmer temperatures and the early evaporation of the snowpack have proved perilous for the rivers, streams and local fish populations.

In part, snow in the Pacific Northwest is melting earlier because average temperatures in the region have risen by 1.3°F between 1895 to 2011. But if we continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere at current rates, temperatures are expected to rise by as much as 9.7°F by 2070, according to the Third National Climate Assessment.

Extreme summer weather, such as the heat domes that descended over the region in 2021 and 2022, pose even greater risks to animal and human life.

Read more about climate risks to the Pacific Northwest.

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Alaska is the fastest-warming state in the U.S., with the average temperature having risen by a disconcerting 4.22°F since 1970.

The upper third of Alaska is located inside the Arctic Circle, a place where temperatures in early December have been an average of 11.5°F above normal, according to data provided by the University of Maine.

Over time, that warming has resulted in a number of hazards for the state, including increased wildfire activity, soil erosion from more intense storms, and the melting of the permafrost and sea ice.

“From 2000 to 2020, 2.5 times more acres burned than in the previous 20 years,” the U.S. Department of Agriculture notes on its website.

In Hawaii, meanwhile, sea level rise is threatening coastal communities.

“The sea level around Hilo Bay [located on the Big Island] has risen by 10 inches in 1950, And now, it’s rising faster at about 1 inch every 4 years,” the state says on its climate change portal.

A 2018 study by researchers at the University of Hawaii found that 34% of the state’s shorelines are already vulnerable to waves and storms made more intense by climate change, and 13 miles of beaches have already been lost to erosion.

By 2100, sea levels could rise by an additional 3.2 feet, a 2017 report by the Hawaii Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Commission found, putting 25,800 additional acres and 6,500 structures at risk.

Read more about climate risks to Alaska and Hawaii.

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